In a grim analysis issued on the eve of the G20 leaders summit, the International Labour Organization (ILO) says the global economy is on the verge of a new and deeper jobs recession that will further delay the global economic recovery and may ignite more social unrest in scores of countries.

The new ‘World of Work Report 2011: Making markets work for jobs’ says a stalled global economic recovery has begun to dramatically affect labour markets. On current trends, it will take at least five years to return employment in advanced economies to pre-crisis levels, one year later than projected in last year’s report.

Noting that the current labour market is already within the confines of the usual six-month lag between an economic slowdown and its impact on employment, the report indicates that 80 million jobs need to be created over the next two years to return to pre-crisis employment rates. However, the recent slowdown in growth suggests that the world economy is likely to create only half of the jobs needed.

The report also features a new ‘social unrest’ index that shows levels of discontent over the lack of jobs and anger over perceptions that the burden of the crisis is not being shared fairly. It notes that in over 45 of the 119 countries examined, the risk of social unrest is rising.

This is especially the case in advanced economies, notably the EU, the Arab region and to a lesser extent Asia. By contrast, there is a stagnant or lower risk of social unrest in Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America.

The study shows that nearly two-thirds of advanced economies and half of emerging and developing economies with recent available data are once again experiencing a slowdown in employment. This comes on top of an already precarious employment situation in which global unemployment is at its highest point ever, surpassing 200 million worldwide.


The cost of human development
The Human Development Report 2011 puts India at 134th position. But the numbers hide even a worse reality, writes Jyotsna Singh
India ranks 134 in the Human Development Report 2011, just above countries like Ghana (135) and Congo (137) which are infamous for their images of starvation, malnutrition and attack by the West for their natural resources. Maintaining its rank of 2010, India falls in the category of Medium Human Development. India’s Human Development Index value is 0.548, worse than the global average of 0.682. The report reiterates that 41.6 per cent of India population lives below the international poverty line of $1.25 a day.

However, looking at the period from 1980 to 2011, some positives can be associated with the country. HDI value improved by 59 per cent for India, as compared to the global improvement of 22 per cent. Also, India’s average rate of improvement has been 1.51 per cent.

However, South Asia as a whole has done equally well. Experts say that one reason for such high rate of improvement is a low base for calculation. The inequalities in South Asia have been so high that even a minor improvement is reflected as a big achievement when calculated in percentage terms. Till some time back Sri Lanka was being looked as a model to follow. But recent revelations of large scale human rights violations during State’s war against the Tamil Tigers has put the country in dock. Pakistan is also reeling under terrorism, with bomb attacks becoming a way of life. Nepal and Bangladesh seem to be coming out of turmoil with well-meaning democracies being put in place.

Thus, in the context of South Asia, India as a country is faring average in its human development. But the rising inequalities are pulling the benefits of the progress down, putting a question mark on the growth model itself. This is reflected in the report also, wherein income inequality is one of the major reason for India to slip many ranks below. On the one hand, the Government is trying to put India on the world map of power centres; while on the other hand, common people are reeling under the heavy burden of inflation, coupled with stagnated wages. The fruit of high national income have not trickled down, with a few billionaires amassing huge amounts of wealth.

The main theme of the report titled ‘Sustainability and Equity: A Better Future for All’, analyses response to environmental degradation of each country. India is among the few countries which have shifted from deforestation to reforestation. With the help of national and international non-governmental organisations and funding, many States are in the process of planting trees in forest areas with depleted green cover. This depletion has largely been a result of human activity, which includes mining, quarrying and farming. It is expected to increase the green cover in India, which is only 22 per cent at the moment. The report appreciates the policies of the Indian government to fight climate change.

However, when the policies are translated on the ground, a very different picture emerges. The situation in Mirzapur District of Uttar Pradesh is a microcosm of the problem at national level. Uttar Pradesh Government has launched a scheme called the Uttar Pradesh Participatory Forest Management and Poverty Alleviation Programme (UPPFMPA). It is being carried out in 14 Districts of the State in collaboration with NGO Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA). The terms and conditions of the programme call for participation of the local residents in planting trees in the forests with depleting tree cover. The trees would be for commercial use, decided by a representative body of the residents and the products would be shared by the Forest Department and the residents equally. Residents will be paid under the Mahatma Gandhi National Employment Guarantee Act.

On the paper the scheme looks good and participatory. But in reality the participation is limited to the forest officials, not extending to the residents. First and foremost, the forest dwellers in most of the cases do not have a claim to the land they till. Despite passage of the Forest Rights Act, which itself was a result of long drawn peoples’ struggle, the Government has not put in enough efforts to determine peoples’ right to land. Thus, “participation” in implementation of UPPFMPA is a dicey matter. The residents in these Districts are fighting against the scheme, which has become an excuse for their eviction. In Mirzapur, villages like Serua have put up a consistent fight against eviction. In such cases, people have been able to get some benefits from the Forest Department. But where there is no sustained struggle, people have had to leave the land that they tilled for years. The area is such that it takes a lot of hard work to prepare the land conducive for farming. How has this impacted the environment? In absence of support from the local populace, which is at the core of planning along with plantation of trees, the scheme is suffering from many glitches. Instead of attending to their demands, the administration blames local residents for bad implementation. But in other places, the issue is shoved under the carpet and trees are planted on papers. What is also missing is an analysis of the proper variety of trees to aid effective afforestation.

The key problem is the top-bottom approach while drawing public policy. In the case of economic policy, which is at the heart of increasing inflation and inequality, the understanding is that the trickle-down effect will solve seething problems. Two decades of economic reforms have proved this wrong. The Occupy Wall Street Movement is a glaring example that this economic approach is not keeping people happy in even the most developed nations. The UPPFMPA is also a policy that has been handed over from the top, without understanding the common people or keeping their Constitutional rights in mind.

Thus, be it the challenge posed by climate change, or ever-rising inequality, unless a people-centric approach is adopted in all decisions by the policy-makers, HDI will not show improvement in true sense of
the term.