Caste arithmetic proved wrong

The Indian voter defeated forces of opportunism, cynicism and sectarianism in the Lok Sabha elections 2009. It gave a rude shock to the wannabe kings and king makers, and surprised a somewhat pessimistic Congress, which had already begun telephone diplomacy by calling up leaders of the Third and the Fourth Front, by handing it a grand mandate to run the country.

Fed up of the rigidity of the Left on any reform or development measure – noticeably the PSU disinvestment and the Indo-US nuclear deal – and the sheer greed of Third and Fourth Front in hobnobbing with any political friend or foe in the attempt to come to power – Mulayam Singh's assertion that he will support any block that promises the sacking of Mayawati government – the voter threw them out of power with a vengeance. In their total disregard of public mood that was crying out for stability, the Third and Fourth Front sealed their own fate.

BJP's PM aspirant LK Advani's fate was also sealed with this election, and his first reaction was to ask the party to find a replacement for him for the post of Leader of the Opposition.

Tally
The Indian National Congress got 206 seats, and along with its allies, including Trinamool Congress, National Congress Party (NCP) and DMK, got 262. Here's the breakup:  Trinamool Congress 19; DMK - 18; Nationalist Congress Party - 9; National Conference - 3; Jharkhand Mukti Morcha - 2 ; Muslim League Kerala State Committee - 2; All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen - 1; Bodoland People's Front - 1; Kerala Congress (Mani) - 1; The BJP got 116 seats on its own and along with the allies, the NDA got 159 seats. The breakup is as follows:  Janata Dal-United - 20;  Shiv Sena - 11; Rashtriya Lok Dal - 5; Akali Dal - 4; Telangana Rashtra Samithi - 2; Asom Gana Parishad – 1.

The Third Front got 80 seats. The breakup is: Bahujan Samaj Party - 21; CPI-M - 16; Biju Janata Dal - 14; AIADMK - 9; Telugu Desam Party - 6; CPI - 4; Janata Dal-Secular - 3; Forward Bloc - 2; Revolutionary Socialist Party - 2; MDMK - 1; Haryana Janhit Congress - 1; Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (Prajatantrik) – 1.
The Fourth Front got 27 seats, including 23 for Samajwadi Party and four for Rashtriya Janata Dal. Other parties got 15 seats and independents got 9 seats.

Show spoilers
Unable to read the mood of the nation that has just press-entered one political message into the voter machines — Development Please! — key Congress allies DMK and Trinamool Congress demanded their share of booty for bringing back the Congress to power with comfortable margin. DMK demanded four cabinet berths, two ministers of state with independent charge and three ministers of state. Those whom the DMK wanted to be inducted into ministerial ranks included M Karunanidhi's son MK Azhagiri and daughter Kanimozhi.

Mamata Banerjee demanded railways, urban development, tourism and water resources. She also demanded a common minimum programme like the 2004 experiment, which the Congress did not want this time, as it becomes a tool in the hands of allies to arm-twist the dominant party on reform and development issues like SEZs, PSUs etc.

Thankfully, the Congress, having learnt a lesson from the pressure tactics of allies last time, refused to relent on handing out ministries, which ultimately led Karunanidhi and his team to boycott the swearing-in ceremony. He decided not to take any ministry at all, and to support the Congress from outside.
Also unhappy with the Congress was another ally Omar Abdullah, who felt that the leading party should have had basic courtesy to ring up father Farooq Abdullah on ministerial positions.

The key berths went to Pranab Mukherjee (Finance); P Chidambaram (Home); AK Antony (Defence); SM Krishna (External Affairs), Kapil Sibal (Human Resource Development), and Sharad Pawar (Agriculture).

Woman’s voice to be heard
The Congress played its trump card by naming newly-appointed Union minister for water resources Meira Kumar as the speaker. With her unanimous election, Kumar became the first woman speaker of the Lok Sabha, while also having the Dalit tag.  The BJP, in its bid to match the Congress move, named tribal leader Karia Munda as the deputy speaker, who emerged as the consensus candidate for the post.

However, there seems to be no consensus on the Women’s reservation Bill, which was first presented in 1997. Samajwadi Leader Mulayam Singh Yadav opposed the bill saying the leadership in the Lower House would be destroyed if the bill was passed. He likened the bill to forcing poison down the throat of Socrates. Earlier, Janata Dal (United) leader Sharad Yadav threatened to consume poison in the House if the bill was passed in its present form.

Thumbs down
Amid the joy of a decisive victory on May 16, the Congress had a cause for anxiety. Union Home Minister P Chidambaram was trailing in the Sivaganga constituency in Tamil Nadu. At a FICCI press briefing, a reporter asked President Harshpati Singhania, whom would the industry like to see as the next FM, in the eventuality of Chidambaram losing. Well, when the result did come out, Chidambaram was declared to have lost to his AIADMK rival Raja Kannappan by 3,500 votes. Chidambaram demanded a recount, following which he was declared winner. Now it was Kannappan's turn to demand a recount. After the second recount, accompanied by violence, Chidambaram was finally declared winner.

But Congress veteran Mani Shankar Aiyer was not so lucky. He lost the Mayiladuthurai seat by 36,854 votes; so did Renuka Chowdhury lose Khammam constituency by 1,24,448 votes. Other prominent losers in these elections were: Ram Vilas Paswan, Hajipur; Margaret Alva, Uttara Kannada; S. Bangarappa, Shimoga; Sajjad Lone, Baramulla; George Fernandes, Muzaffarpur; Vijay Goel, New Delhi; Mallika Sarabhai, Gandhinagar; and Capt GR Gopinath, South Bangalore.

All the world's not a stage
While the Congress wave stopped the march of some right-meaning professionals who wanted to join politics with a view to change it from inside, the voter has not lapped up the film fraternity either. Vinod Khanna, contesting the elections from Gurdaspur constituency, lost to his Congress rival Pratap Singh Bajwa by 8,359 votes, though Jayaprada won the Rampur constituency by 12,093 votes, against her Congress rival Noor Bano begum.

Shekhar Suman, the Congress candidate for Patna Sahib constituency, lost to another movie veteran and BJP's Shatrughan Sinha. Another actor-turned-Congressman, Govinda, did not get the ticket this time.  Lok Sabha elections, however, proved to be a favourable pitch for cricketers Navjot Singh Sidhu and Mohammad Azharuddin, who won from Amritsar and Moradabad respectively.

Run-up to the elections
The dramatics that were staged just before the 15th Lok Sabha elections reminded of old loopholes of Indian politics as well as gave hopes that things can change for the better. There were three major formations that represented three perspectives for the elections and their individual strength post-election decided how things would run in the next five years. One formation was led by the Congress, which did not go into elections under the banner of UPA. Its main campaign revolved around the achievements of the outgoing government. The humiliating seat-share that it was offered by Lalu Prasad’s RJD and Ram Vilas Paswan’s LJP in Bihar (three out of 39) came as a big setback, though Prasad reassured of his commitment towards UPA. The Congress pitched Manmohan Singh as its PM candidate. The other group was led by the saffron BJP. It received a major blow when its 11-year-old ally Biju Janta Dal of Orissa parted ways. BJD is now part of the third front.

An alternate to the saffron brigade and the neo-liberal economic policies was proposed by the third front. Though it came under attack for not having parties with same ideology under one umbrella, CPI(M) general secretary Prakash Karat, said that the basic aim was to provide a non-BJP, non-Congress alternative. There are nine main players including parties of the Left front, TDP and BJD. Mayawati extended solidarity to the front. The fourth front came to be represented by Lalu Yadav, Ram Vilas Paswan and Mulayam Singh Yadav.

War of words
Election 2009 saw slugfest at its worst. BJP’s Prime Ministerial candidate LK Advani missed no opportunity during his election campaign to highlight the ‘weakness’ of Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh.
At the same time, Gujarat chief minister Narendra Modi called the Congress a 150-year-old ‘budhia’. This faced a joint counter-attack from the Congress top-brass. Dr Singh admitted he could not match Advani in public speeches but he clarified that what was needed to run the country was action.

Retorting to the ‘budhia’ remark, Priyanka Gandhi asked mediapersons, “Do I look old to you?” Priyanka’s popularity with voters during her canvassing for her family in Uttar Pradesh gave rise to speculations whether she would be a better Congress mascot than her brother.

Meanwhile, Lok Sabha aspirants indulged in a shameless war of words. Development issues were given a short shrift. If Varun Gandhi sought to be a hero by threatening to cut off hands of those who dare trouble Hindus, Lalu Yadav stooped to similar crudeness, claiming he would have ordered a roller to run over Varun for his inflammatory remark if he had been the chief minister.  Like Varun, MDMK’s  Vaiko resorted to exploiting group identity, threatening the country with bloodbath if  LTTE leader Prabhakaran was harmed. The Congress was put in a tight spot when DMK supremo M Karunanidhi claimed that Prabhakaran was not a terrorist but a good friend. The compulsions of alliance politics are such that the Congress, which has lost a leader to Prabhakaran-orchestrated terror, couldn’t even come down with full fury on Karunanidhi for his statement.

Samajwadi Party leader Mulayam Singh Yadav actually thought that he would endear himself with the voter by promising a ban on English and computers.

The Congress had its own share of troubles, with the old case of Sonia Gandhi having accepted a Belgian honour, Order of Leopold, haunting the UPA leader. To her relief, Chief Election Commissioner N Gopalaswami, who was keen to act on a petition filed against Sonia, retired on April 21 and the other two ECs, Navin Chawla and SY Quraishi were not in favour of pursuing it. The decision, as on April 20, was to be taken by the President.

Advani, on his part, had to face the phantoms of the Kandahar highjack drama, with his adversaries claiming he was a willing party to release of terrorists, rather than a reluctant player.

The electoral juggernaut this year saw new alliances, most importantly of non-Congress, non-BJP parties coming together under the Third Front. Old foes — Lalu Yadav, Mulayam Singh Yadav and Ram Vilas Paswan —  turning friends, old ally Navin Patnaik dumping the BJP, and ex-Congress stalwart Sharad Pawar leaning towards the Left. But as Abhishek Singhvi said, these are shifting allegiances. The only irrevocable divide is between the BJP and the Congress.

Rahul’s rise
Though the Congress projected Dr Manmohan Singh as the Prime Ministerial Candidate, much of the credit for a near majority goes to Rahul Gandhi’s painstaking door-to-door election campaign, unlike the net-savvy campaign of his octagenarian rival LK Advani. His work was rewarded with him being elevated to the post of party general secretary. Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh was keen for a ministerial berth for him, but Rahul expressed keenness to revamp the Congress organisation at the grassroots instead. His popularity has continued to soar all these months thanks to his relentless contact programme with the poor, including his stays with them. 

At state level
In the assembly elections conducted alongside Lok Sabha elections, no anti-incumbency was visible. In Orissa, Naveen Patnaik of Biju Janata Dal starts his third term as chief minister, after the party won 103 out of 147 seats.

In Andhra Pradesh, the Congress won 155 of 294 seats, leading to a second term for YS Rajasekhara Reddy. Rival TDP won 100 seats.  In Sikkim, Pawan Kumar Chamling was sworn in has chief minister for his fourth term.

Even before the Lok Sabha elections, just a day after 26/11, when it was perceived that the Congress would be routed in assembly elections on account of security lapses in Mumbai, it surprised the nation, and itself, with victory in three states.

It was a 3:2 states win for Congress and BJP as the former swept the polls in Delhi, Rajasthan and the north-eastern state of Mizoram. BJP had to settle for Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. The five states went for polls over a period of three weeks and the results were declared on December 8. Though BJP managed to pull over in MP and Chhattisgarh, it could not defeat Sheila Dikshit-led Congress in Delhi. It is the third term for Congress in Delhi. BJP, which was confident of its win this time, managed 23 seats. BJP President Rajnath Singh called the Congress win as “surprising”. In the desert state of Rajasthan, Congress won 96 out of 200 state assembly seats. BJP won a total of 78 seats. Vasundhara Raje, former state chief minister, who won her seat from Jhalrapatan, said her party would offer constructive opposition in the assembly. Loktantrik Samajwadi Party made a new entry to the state this time. It was a landslide win for the Congress in Mizoram. In central Madhya Pradesh, Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chauhan-led BJP bagged 142 out of 230 seats. In 2003, the party had swept 173 seats where as Congress won 38 seats. Congress could pull 71 seats this time. In Chhattisgarh, BJP tribal votes helped the party to win 23 out of 29 reserved scheduled tribe seats in the state.